Get In Touch
“November sales began to plummet, and December sales ground to a complete halt, as if humanity had become extinct.” “Even with advertising on social media, Google Ads and discounts, we didn’t expect such a seasonal slump” …
This is exactly the sort of message sellers have been exchanging for over a year now. And there is no certainty that the situation will change any time soon. This means that businesses need to change not only their approach to sales, but also their very understanding of seasonality, according to experts at Dropshipping Stelvel EOOD.
About ten years ago, issues of seasonality in marketing gradually gave way to the topic of organising and planning sales according to the calendar, based on previous years’ experience. But this logic no longer works. Last year’s figures do not take into account new tariffs and trade restrictions, the changed cost of customer acquisition, and the platforms’ new ranking rules.
Identifying the point at which profit is lost
Today, seasonality consists of a series of short-term demand patterns: a build-up of interest, a sharp peak in sales, a post-holiday slump accompanied by returns, and localised surges triggered by external factors.
In 2026, it will be important for businesses to identify not the ‘fact of the season’ but the break-even point, according to experts at Stelvel EOOD. This involves analysing not absolute figures or ‘how much was sold’, but how rapidly demand changed. When this is achieved, seasonality ceases to be a risk and becomes a manageable system.
Within this system, the two main models of online retail – dropshipping and traditional e-commerce – operate differently. However, the seasonal mistakes they make are often the same.
Mistake 1. Planning based on the calendar and overestimating demand
Changes in search behaviour, the first price movements within a niche, and signals from platforms indicating growing interest in a category – an attentive seller can spot all of these several weeks before seasonal demand begins. Actual seasonal demand starts to take shape earlier than most people realise.
Christmas, Back to School, and summer sales are dates that are equally well known to all market participants. This is precisely why margins on these events are minimal: too many sellers enter the market at the same time with similar offers, according to STELVEL’s experts. During the peak season, the winner is the one who enters the market before the peak becomes obvious.
One of the most costly mistakes is to base forecasts on last year’s figures and experience. Everything changes: customer acquisition costs, competition and the structure of demand. What worked before may not work at all in the new season.
Mistake 2. Failing to factor in the cash flow gap in advance
This is where the models differ. In dropshipping, a gap arises between the advertising budget-which is spent immediately-and the revenue, which platforms and payment systems transfer with a delay ranging from a few days to several weeks. During peak seasons, when budgets are at their highest, this gap grows proportionally, as noted by managers at Dropshipping Stelvel EOOD. In a traditional online shop, the logic is different: stock, logistics and marketing are paid for before sales begin, whilst revenue comes in later. But the outcome is the same: a business that fails to factor in this gap in advance either enters the peak season with a reduced budget or has to raise funds on unfavourable terms precisely when its negotiating position is at its weakest.
Mistake 3. Copying other people’s seasonal offers
A competitor’s strong offer – a discount, a bundle, special delivery terms – looks like a ready-made solution. It’s easier to copy than to develop your own. The problem is that someone else’s offer is tailored to their own business model: a different margin, different terms with suppliers, a different CAC. If you copy the format without understanding the substance, you could end up operating at a loss, whilst being completely convinced that your decision is the right one. A seasonal offer isn’t just about how a competitor’s page looks. It’s a matter of maths that can only be understood from the inside.
Mistake 4. Scaling up too early and failing to understand the market
The first signs of movement at the start of the season create the temptation to immediately increase the budget. In dropshipping, this means increasing the advertising budget, whilst for an online shop, it means increasing the volume of purchases (and taking advantage of any volume-based discounts from the supplier). Doing this without justification and making a decision before there is a basis for it is a mistake. You must not increase your advertising budget or purchase goods from a supplier until demand has been confirmed by actual sales. In both cases, scaling up does not improve the outcome but rather compounds the mistake: money is spent more quickly, and weaknesses in the system become apparent precisely when the cost of each one is at its highest.
Mistake 5. Incorrect margin calculation
Advertising costs rise predictably and significantly during the peak season. According to independent research into the advertising market, CPM in November–December exceeds the annual average by 25–60 per cent, and during major sales periods it can be two to three times higher than usual. A margin calculated based on data from a quiet period looks completely different at peak times. A dropshipper who has not updated their calculations may be selling actively – and operating at a loss without realising it. A shop owner faces the same situation if rising logistics costs during peak periods are added to the increase in traffic costs. The shop owner faces the same challenge: advertising costs are rising, and delivery is also becoming more expensive.
Mistake 6. Failing to plan for the end of the season
The later a retailer starts thinking about the end of the season, the more expensive the season itself becomes, according to STELVEL’s experts.
A dropshipper needs to reduce advertising costs gradually and in advance, retaining only those channels that continue to attract customers. Shop owners are usually left with unsold stock. In both cases, the lack of an exit plan turns every season into a separate management crisis. Decisions on when to scale back, how to reallocate resources and what to do with remaining stock must be made before the season begins – not once the figures have already started to fall.
What to do right now
Open Google Trends and check your niche. If search queries have already started to rise, the season has begun earlier than it seems.
Calculate your cash flow gap in advance. Take into account payment delays from marketplaces and platforms. Work out how much money will be spent on advertising before you receive your first payments. This is the amount your business will have to cover from its own funds.
Separately, work out what will happen to your margin if advertising costs rise. For example, if the CPM rises by 50 per cent. If your profit disappears at these figures, it’s better to sort out the problem before the season rather than during it.
And one more important point: decide in advance at what point you’ll stop scaling up. Don’t go by gut feeling, but by specific metrics. For example, based on customer acquisition cost or a drop in conversion rates.
Preparing for the 2026–2027 season
Preparing for the season is not about expanding the product range or increasing the advertising budget.
It is an attempt to answer three questions in advance: how quickly is demand growing in the niche right now, what will remain of the margin if traffic costs 50 per cent more, and how long can the business operate without incoming revenue?
Those who answer these questions in July will be in control of the season in November. Those who start looking for answers in November will pay the price in December.
The Stelvel EOOD affiliate network allows you to flexibly adapt your product range to any seasonal scenario – without any stock risks or upfront investment in goods. The supplier handles production, storage and delivery. The partner handles sales and marketing.